PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY, Past Present and the Future

Pakistan was thought of having abandoned its pro-Taliban policy in Afghanistan after becoming an ally in the US-led war on terror that was started in the wake of 9/11 incident. However, the unfolding of events during the recent years suggests that the country still has links with the Taliban despite being relentlessly subjected to scathing criticism by the US and the West. Nonetheless, it is important to find out why Pakistan adopted a policy that might have cost it its relationship with the United States, the country that has been a major donor to its quest for eliminating terrorism and extremism. It is also important to see how long will Pakistan pursue this policy and what are the possible consequences for the country.

Before the fateful happenings on 9/11, Pakistan’s policy to use religion for pursuing its interests abroad was not a threat to the US; in fact, this policy was quite helpful for the US in achieving its interests against the Soviet Union after the latter’s invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan, in return, even received substantial amounts in economic aid and also won political favours from the US.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Pakistan supported the Taliban to gain a foothold in Afghanistan by installing a Pakistan-friendly government there. This perhaps, is the biggest reason why the country has suffered a lot from activities from across the border. This happened mainly because of some anti-Pakistan Afghan leaders who are staunch supporters of the Pukhtoonistan issue that was considered a potent threat to Pakistan’s integrity.

The 9/11 episode effected a radical change in Pakistan’s security policy. This time, the US came to weed out, from Afghanistan, all those elements it had used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Pakistan, on the one hand, could not afford opposing the US in the war on terror, while it had also to maintain its links with the Taliban leadership, on the other. The policy was adopted because Pakistan needed the Taliban to neutralize any possible threats to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, if any vacuum was created in the absence of a strong central authority in Afghanistan.

After the inauguration of a civilian government in Afghanistan, Pakistan continued with its policy of supporting the Taliban as they were mainly engaged in fighting against the foreign, occupying forces on the Afghan soil. Taking such measures was crucial to Pakistan’s survival and to counter anti-Pakistani lobby in Afghanistan – mainly the growing Indian influence.

In the recent past, we have seen that all efforts by Hamid Karzai regime and the United States to negotiate with the Taliban ended up in smoke. One important factor behind this debacle was Pakistan’s unwillingness to influence the Taliban. At that time, there was a growing insecurity inside Pakistan that kept the country’s defence forces and the law-enforcement agencies engaged in countering the menace.

In addition, in the post-US drawdown scenario, the stakes of regional and world superpowers were high in Afghanistan’s peace and stability. The Afghan president Ashraf Ghani launched efforts for negotiating a peaceful settlement with the Taliban so as to put an end to the intermittent fighting between the security forces and the Taliban.

International community, especially China and the United States, have been prodding Pakistan to exert its influence to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. China has its own economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan; hence, for achieving stability there, it wanted Pakistan to play an active role.

So, in July 2015, Pakistan brokered a direct contact between the Afghan government and the Taliban at Murree But the process was sabotaged with the pronouncement of the death of Taliban supremo only two days before the start of the second round. It also showed that Pakistan has established some links with the Taliban to make them join the peace talks.

Currently, if Pakistan wants to eliminate any possible threats from the Afghan side – border and water issues and the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan – other countries in the region, especially China and Russia, too want to pursue their interests in the country. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG), which consists of US, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, is working, albeit slowly, to conclude successful negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Russia’s re-involvement in the Afghan conflict is a new development and it may also create more and more US-Russia tensions. However, it is undeniable that Pakistan’s active role is a prerequisite to the success of any such talks.

Reportedly, Islamabad is engaged in negotiations with Kabul to settle its core concerns like the Kabul River water issue where Pakistan does not want Kabul to build a dam as it would badly impact the Warsak Dam in Peshawar and also on settling its border dispute – Durand Line issue – which is not recognized as a legitimate international border by some Afghan factions.

Pakistan wants to settle all issues with Afghanistan amicably and the latter’s response will be instrumental in determining the fate of the Afghan peace process. Afghanistan should also come forward to resolve these issues.

If negotiations prove fruitful and Taliban are made part of the Afghan government and also there comes peace on the Afghan soil, it is expected that Pakistan will be better able to counter the anti-Pakistan elements in the Afghan parliament as well as to neutralize the Indian clout there.

Such a move will not only help create peace and stability in Afghanistan but will also make Pakistan’s Afghan policy successful. China will also be able to pursue its economic and strategic interests and the US will get a much-needed respite from the Afghan insurgency.

The success of negotiations will be a win-win situation not only for Pakistan and Afghanistan but also for the US and China and other regional powers for which the Afghan insurgency is a potent threat.